North-East monsoon sets in over TN, IMD forecasts normal rainfall
Chennai: The Northeast Monsoon has set in over Tamil Nadu on Thursday, with the IMD forecasting normal rainfall across the state for the season. Addressing a press conference here, Regional Meteorological Centre Director V R Durai said widespread light to moderate rainfall and isolated heavy showers were recorded across Tamil Nadu in the last 24 hours.
Thogaimalai in Karur district recorded the highest rainfall of 11 cm, followed by Nagapattinam and Dharmapuri with 8 cm each, alongside moderate showers in several interior districts.
“Thunderstorms with isolated heavy rain are likely over the Western Ghats and adjoining interior districts, including the Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Theni, Erode, Tiruppur, Salem, Namakkal, Dharmapuri, and Tiruvannamalai over the next two days,” he said.
Chennai and its neighbourhood are likely to receive moderate rain during this period, the official said. Outlining the seasonal outlook from October to December, the Director said rainfall is likely to remain normal across coastal areas, while southern districts are expected to receive above-normal precipitation, potentially offering relief to farmers in Cauvery delta districts such as Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, and Nagapattinam.
In contrast, northern districts are expected to record below-normal rainfall, he added. Reviewing the southwest monsoon that concluded recently, Durai said the state registered a 21 per cent deficit, making it the third lowest in recent years after 2002 (-45 per cent) and 2012 (-23 per cent), and comparable to 2016 (-20 per cent).
Dismissing social media claims regarding imminent cloudbursts and severe deluge, the official stressed that weather is dynamic and heavy spells cannot be predicted months in advance.
“Models rely on initial atmospheric conditions. It is scientifically not possible to predict extreme rainfall of 50 cm or 90 cm a month or two ahead. Our seven-day forecast has warned of heavy rain, but no extremely heavy rainfall warning has been issued for the coming week,” he noted.
On atmospheric systems, the Director ruled out the formation of any low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal over the next week. “However, there is a possibility of a low-pressure area forming over the Arabian Sea. If it develops close to the coast, the Western Ghats districts could receive heavy rain,” he said.
He added that temperatures across most districts in the state are currently hovering 2 to 3 degrees Celsius above normal due to prevailing conditions, though there is no possibility of a heatwave.
No warning has been issued for fishermen as wind speeds remain below the alert threshold of 40-50 kmph, the official said.