AAP holds edge in tight Punjab poll race: Survey

Punjab is set for a fiercely contested Assembly election in 2027, with the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) retaining a narrow electoral advantage but facing a far more competitive political landscape than the sweeping mandate it secured in 2022, according to the latest People’s Pulse Research Organization survey.

The 45-day survey projects AAP as the single largest party with 58-63 seats in the 117-member Assembly, close to the majority mark. Congress is forecast to win 36-43 seats, while Waris Punjab De (WPD) is expected to secure 4-7 seats. The BJP may win 2-6 seats and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 2-4 seats, assuming all parties contest independently. Vote-share estimates place AAP at 37 per cent, Congress at 31 per cent, WPD at 14 per cent, BJP at 8 per cent and SAD at 6 per cent.

The report says Punjab’s politics has shifted from the anti-incumbency wave of 2022 to a performance-based assessment focused on governance, employment, agriculture, law and order, welfare delivery and constituency-level issues. Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann remains the state’s most popular leader, with 40 per cent backing him for the top post, ahead of Charanjit Singh Channi (33 per cent) and Amritpal Singh (13 per cent). However, the survey identifies anti-incumbency against many AAP MLAs as the party’s biggest challenge, suggesting replacing 45-70 legislators could improve its prospects.

Congress continues to be AAP’s principal challenger but must overcome factionalism and project Channi as its chief ministerial face. WPD has emerged as a significant force among young Sikh voters in border districts, while SAD continues to struggle to retain its traditional base. The BJP has expanded its urban presence but faces difficulties among Sikh farming communities.

The survey identifies drug abuse, unemployment, youth migration, agricultural distress, MSP, irrigation, law and order and economic development as the dominant election issues. Based on 8,000 face-to-face interviews across all 117 Assembly constituencies, the report concludes the 2027 election remains wide open, with candidate selection, regional strategies and local campaigning likely to decide the outcome.